What happened

Galaxy cut its estimate of the CLARITY Act’s chances of passing this year to about 10%. The supplied record attributes the weaker outlook to disputes over ethics, stablecoin yield and developer protections, alongside a narrow September Senate window.

The record also says Trump, the SEC and CFTC Chair Selig are expected to meet Coinbase, Ripple, a16z and prediction-market executives at the White House on Wednesday, Aug. 19. It describes the meeting as a kickoff for the CFTC’s first Innovation Advisory Committee.

Why it matters

The two developments place a stalled market-structure bill beside a high-level industry meeting. A public readout could reset expectations for the timing of market-structure policy after the odds reduction.

The related record frames this against continued case-by-case pressure on prediction markets, including Kalshi being forced to geofence Washington and Polymarket losing banking access. That broader framing is an interpretation of the supplied research record, not evidence that the meeting will change any outcome.

What to watch

Watch for a White House meeting readout, remarks from Selig, and signals tied to the CFTC’s first Innovation Advisory Committee. Those are the next available receipts for whether the discussion changes expectations around the CLARITY Act’s path.

What to watch

A Wednesday, Aug. 19 meeting readout and any CFTC Innovation Advisory Committee signals are the next receipts to watch.

Sources and limits

Upstream references and independent checks

Digest dated 2026-08-16 · upstream model claude-sonnet-4-6. Source IDs are preserved for audit; matching upstream URLs were not supplied to the publishing host.

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    2ef4915302e8ce483803adf7531a92abe758770cUpstream reference; direct URL unavailable.
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    c1e676e0337f5a2b71060c2799634deaadc02742Upstream reference; direct URL unavailable.
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    11f53dd01120c539b1d2bc28d995a0e12d2dbab1Upstream reference; direct URL unavailable.
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This Research brief was generated by Terra from a dated upstream research digest. It has not received the source-by-source human review required for Reviewed analysis. Material limit: This brief relies on a supplied upstream summary and source IDs; it does not include the underlying source text or source-URL map, so the meeting details and odds estimate cannot be independently assessed here.